A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach

It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human–hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems – and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems – has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for models of socio-hydrology applicable to agricultural catchments, made up of six key components that combine to form the coupled system dynamics: namely, catchment hydrology, population, economics, environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response. The conceptual framework posits two novel constructs: (i) a composite socioeconomic driving variable, termed the Community Sensitivity state variable, which seeks to capture the perceived level of threat to a community's quality of life, and acts as a key link tying together one of the fundamental feedback loops of the coupled system, and (ii) a Behavioural Response variable as the observable feedback mechanism, which reflects land and water management decisions relevant to the hydrological context. The framework makes a further contribution through the introduction of three macro-scale parameters that enable it to normalise for differences in climate, socioeconomic and political gradients across study sites. In this way, the framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters, which allow for comparative studies to be undertaken, and catchment-specific conditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensure that site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologic problems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would be applied, two socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australian experience, are presented and the parameterisation approach that would be taken in each case is discussed. Preliminary findings in the case studies lend support to the conceptual theories outlined in the framework. It is envisioned that the application of this framework across study sites and gradients will aid in developing our understanding of the fundamental interactions and feedbacks in such complex human–hydrology systems, and allow hydrologists to improve social–ecological systems modelling through better representation of human feedbacks on hydrological processes

An international collaborative evaluation of central serous chorioretinopathy: different therapeutic approaches and review of literature. The European Vitreoretinal Society central serous chorioretinopathy study

Purpose: To study and compare the efficacy of different therapeutic options for the treatment of central serous chorioretinopathy (CSCR). Methods: This is a nonrandomized, international multicentre study on 1719 patients (1861 eyes) diagnosed with CSCR, from 63 centres (24 countries). Reported data included different methods of treatment and both results of diagnostic examinations [fluorescein angiography and/or optical coherent tomography (OCT)] and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) before and after therapy. The duration of observation had a mean of 11 months but was extended in a minority of cases up to 7 years. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of the different therapeutic options of CSCR in terms of both visual (BCVA) and anatomic (OCT) improvement. Results: One thousand seven hundred nineteen patients (1861 eyes) diagnosed with CSCR were included. Treatments performed were nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory eye drops, laser photocoagulation, micropulse diode laser photocoagulation, photodynamic therapy (PDT; Standard PDT, Reduced-dose PDT, Reduced-fluence PDT), intravitreal (IVT) antivascular endothelial growth factor injection (VEGF), observation and other treatments. The list of the OTHERS included both combinations of the main proposed treatments or a variety of other treatments such as eplerenone, spironolactone, acetazolamide, beta-blockers, anti-anxiety drugs, aspirin, folic acid, methotrexate, statins, vitis vinifera extract medication and pars plana vitrectomy. The majority of the patients were men with a prevalence of 77%. The odds ratio (OR) showed a partial or complete resolution of fluid on OCT with any treatment as compared with observation. In univariate analysis, the anatomical result (improvement in subretinal fluid using OCT at 1 month) was favoured by age <60 years (p < 0.005), no previous observation (p < 0.0002), duration less than 3 months (p < 0.0001), absence of CSCR in the fellow eye (p = 0.04), leakage outside of the arcade (p = 0.05) and fluid height >500 \u3bcm (p = 0.03). The OR for obtaining partial or complete resolution showed that anti-VEGF and eyedrops were not statistically significant; whereas PDT (8.5), thermal laser (11.3) and micropulse laser (8.9) lead to better anatomical results with less variability. In univariate analysis, the functional result at 1 month was favoured by first episode (p = 0.04), height of subretinal fluid >500 \u3bcm (p < 0.0001) and short duration of observation (p = 0.02). Finally, there was no statistically significant difference among the treatments at 12 months. Conclusion: Spontaneous resolution has been described in a high percentage of patients. Laser (micropulse and thermal) and PDT seem to lead to significant early anatomical improvement; however, there is little change beyond the first month of treatment. The real visual benefit needs further clarification

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

30-Day morbidity and mortality of bariatric metabolic surgery in adolescence during the COVID-19 pandemic – The GENEVA study

Background: Metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) is an effective treatment for adolescents with severe obesity. Objectives: This study examined the safety of MBS in adolescents during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: This was a global, multicentre and observational cohort study of MBS performed between May 01, 2020, and October 10,2020, in 68 centres from 24 countries. Data collection included in-hospital and 30-day COVID-19 and surgery-specific morbidity/mortality. Results: One hundred and seventy adolescent patients (mean age: 17.75 ± 1.30 years), mostly females (n = 122, 71.8%), underwent MBS during the study period. The mean pre-operative weight and body mass index were 122.16 ± 15.92 kg and 43.7 ± 7.11 kg/m2, respectively. Although majority of patients had pre-operative testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n = 146; 85.9%), only 42.4% (n = 72) of the patients were asked to self-isolate pre-operatively. Two patients developed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection post-operatively (1.2%). The overall complication rate was 5.3% (n = 9). There was no mortality in this cohort. Conclusions: MBS in adolescents with obesity is safe during the COVID-19 pandemic when performed within the context of local precautionary procedures (such as pre-operative testing). The 30-day morbidity rates were similar to those reported pre-pandemic. These data will help facilitate the safe re-introduction of MBS services for this group of patients

30-day morbidity and mortality of sleeve gastrectomy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and one anastomosis gastric bypass: a propensity score-matched analysis of the GENEVA data

Background: There is a paucity of data comparing 30-day morbidity and mortality of sleeve gastrectomy (SG), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and one anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB). This study aimed to compare the 30-day safety of SG, RYGB, and OAGB in propensity score-matched cohorts. Materials and methods: This analysis utilised data collected from the GENEVA study which was a multicentre observational cohort study of bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS) in 185 centres across 42 countries between 01/05/2022 and 31/10/2020 during the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. 30-day complications were categorised according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Patients receiving SG, RYGB, or OAGB were propensity-matched according to baseline characteristics and 30-day complications were compared between groups. Results: In total, 6770 patients (SG 3983; OAGB 702; RYGB 2085) were included in this analysis. Prior to matching, RYGB was associated with highest 30-day complication rate (SG 5.8%; OAGB 7.5%; RYGB 8.0% (p = 0.006)). On multivariate regression modelling, Insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolaemia were associated with increased 30-day complications. Being a non-smoker was associated with reduced complication rates. When compared to SG as a reference category, RYGB, but not OAGB, was associated with an increased rate of 30-day complications. A total of 702 pairs of SG and OAGB were propensity score-matched. The complication rate in the SG group was 7.3% (n = 51) as compared to 7.5% (n = 53) in the OAGB group (p = 0.68). Similarly, 2085 pairs of SG and RYGB were propensity score-matched. The complication rate in the SG group was 6.1% (n = 127) as compared to 7.9% (n = 166) in the RYGB group (p = 0.09). And, 702 pairs of OAGB and RYGB were matched. The complication rate in both groups was the same at 7.5 % (n = 53; p = 0.07). Conclusions: This global study found no significant difference in the 30-day morbidity and mortality of SG, RYGB, and OAGB in propensity score-matched cohorts

Shaping information processing: The role of oscillatory dynamics in a working memory task

Neural oscillations are thought to reflect low-level operations that can be used for higher-level cognitive functions. Here, we investigated the role of brain rhythms in the 1-30 Hz range by recording MEG in human participants performing a visual delayed match-to-sample paradigm in which orientation or spatial frequency of sample and probe gratings had to be matched. A cue occurring before or after sample presentation indicated the to-be-matched feature. We demonstrate that alpha/beta power decrease tracks the presentation of the informative cue and indexes faster responses. Moreover, these faster responses coincided with an augmented phase alignment of slow oscillations, as well as phase-amplitude coupling between slow and fast oscillations. Importantly, stimulus decodability was boosted by both low alpha power and high beta power. In summary, we provide support for a comprehensive framework in which different rhythms play specific roles: slow rhythms control input sampling, while alpha (and beta) gates the information flow, beta recruits task-relevant circuits, and the timing of faster oscillations is controlled by slower ones

Colchicine use might be associated with lower mortality in COVID-19 patients: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Colchicine was recently repurposed for the management of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This rapid review and meta-analysis aimed to assess colchicine\u27s impact on mortality outcomes in COVID-19 patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar since their inception till 25/03/2021 for observational or controlled studies that reported mortality as an outcome. The mortality odd ratios were generated with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals utilizing the random-effects model. RESULTS: Nine studies comprising 5522 patients met our inclusion criteria. Our meta-analysis revealed significantly lower mortality in the colchicine group (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.25-0.48, I2 0%) compared with controls. A subgroup analysis limited to hospitalized patients (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.25-0.50, I2 0%) revealed similarly lower mortality in the colchicine group. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests a mortality benefit with colchicine when used in the treatment of COVID-19 patients. The majority of included studies were observational; thus, the findings of this review need to be further supported by the results of ongoing trials